¿La energía en peligro frente a Trump? El planeta es “políticamente agnóstico” . Yi Shi
This week COP29 on climate change began in Baku, capital of Azerbaijan. It aims for new financing target in developing countries, to replace 2009 target of 100,000 million dollars per year. The promise of developed countries to was not fulfilled until 2022, with criticism for the high proportion of loans. The focus will be on the overall scale of financing and extent to which the private sector should contribute. In addition, countries are finalising national climate plans, which will be presented in early 2025. They are required to submit Biennial Reports on progress of commitments. In fact, the Group of Independent Experts on Climate Finance suggests developing countries (ex-China) need $2.4 trillion annually until 2030 for the transition to clean energy, adaptation to climate change and compensation for loss and damage from extreme weather events.
COP29 comes after U.S. presidential election, which may lead to environmental policy changes. With Trump in office, some elements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) may be in jeopardy, although the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act package seems secure, thanks to bipartisan support. In any case, Trump is in favour of oil and gas production, but anti-renewable energy. There may be limits to IRA incentives, as electric vehicle credits and green subsidies, even get out of the Paris Agreement and expedite drilling permits on federal lands, as well as loosen energy regulations, as fuel standards and car emissions. It may have negative impact on the U.S. renewable energy segment.
The fact is that emerging economies are more vulnerable to global warming, including coastal flooding and falls in agricultural production. A study by the University of Oxford, commissioned by Pictet AM, estimates climate change could reduce global GDP per capita by 45% by 2100, with much greater losses in emerging countries in warm latitudes.
Pictet AM thematic investments are based on the framework of global megatrends defined by the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. PictetGlobal Environmental Opportunities, Pictet Clean Energy, Pictet Timber, PictetWater and Pictet SmartCity are more related to climate change. All of them fall under Article 9 of the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation. The environmental impact measurement is based on the scientific framework of nine planetary boundaries of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, considering the full life cycle of companies’ products and services. In fact, awareness of environmental issues is deeply rooted in a whole generation of consumers and investors.
For that, Pictet Global Environmental Opportunities focuses on environmental solutions providers, with business models that do not rely on government subsidies and robust balance sheets, which have enabled continued growth, even when interest rates have been high. It aims for a positive environmental impact in companies with at least 20 % of activities linked to environmental products and services, with real exposure much higher. It uses the planetary boundaries framework to define companies that operate within a safe operating space on environmental issues, including climate change. As for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the impact of companies’ products and services is evaluated relative to the MSCI ACWI world index. Voting rights are systematically exercised and, where appropriate, dialogue is established with the companies.